The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley take a closer look at Estée Lauder’s turbulent turnaround, tracing the beauty giant’s fall from pandemic favorite to contrarian play. After years of strong growth, the company was hit by an inventory pileup, the collapse of China’s daigou shopping channel, and a broader slowdown in its most important market. In this episode, they explore whether the “Beauty Reimagined” strategy and the arrival of new CEO Stéphane de La Faverie can reignite growth through cost savings, better channel mix, and stronger appeal to younger consumers.

Daniel and Shawn debate how realistic a turnaround is, whether the risk/reward resembles Nike’s recent playbook, and what needs to go right for Estée Lauder to reclaim its former strength. They also touch on wider beauty industry trends, the role of R&D as a competitive moat, internal tensions within the Lauder family, and the growing strategic weight of China for global fashion and cosmetics brands.

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.



IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

05:29 - How Estée Lauder built the beauty giant

13:42 - Why Estée Lauder’s business and stock fell so dramatically

27:22 - How Social Media and personal brands changed the beauty industry

14:03 - Why China played a major part in the company’s rise and fall

42:23 - How the family drama caused a management crisis

46:26 - How Estée Lauder plans to rise to the industry’s top again

55:08 - Whether Estée Lauder is attractively valued at its current levels

1:00:08 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add EL to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Sign Up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Community.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠


Book on Estée Lauder: The Company I Keep – My Life in Beauty.


Estée Lauder’s Investor Relations.


Explore our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Uber,Nike, Reddit, Nintendo⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Airbnb⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AutoZone⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Alphabet⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ulta⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠John Deere⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Madison Square Garden Sports⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Check out the books mentioned in the podcast ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.




NEW TO THE SHOW?


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Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Try Shawn's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.⁠




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Connect with Shawn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahncke break down LVMH (ticker: MC), an iconic luxury goods empire with brands ranging from Louis Vuitton to Moët, Dior, Chandon, Hennessy, Tiffany, Bulgari, and Tag Heur, among others. It’s a powerful conglomerate built by one of the world’s richest men, Bernard Arnault, known as the “wolf in cashmere” for his ruthless consolidation of power in the luxury industry.

In this episode, you’ll learn how Arnault built the LVMH empire, what makes “true luxury” so special and different from other types of businesses, the parallels between LVMH and Berkshire Hathaway, what the backbone of this conglomerate is, whether there’s actually a backdoor way to buy LVMH shares at a 20% discount, whether the stock is currently fairly valued, plus so much more!

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.



IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

15:57 - How Arnault got his start and took control of LVMH.

20:56 - What inspired Arnault to build a luxury conglomerate.

24:05 - How LVMH benefits from economies of scale.

30:31 - Which brands drive business the most.

51:59 - What factors matter most in luxury purchases.

56:07 - What are the most important markets for luxury goods?

01:00:59 - Whether the backdoor way to buy LVMH shares at a discount is too good to be true.

01:08:03 - Whether LVMH is fairly valued and whether it’s added to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio.



*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Sign Up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Community.⁠⁠⁠⁠


LVMH’s rich history of tradition and desirability.

Business Breakdowns’ 2022 episode on LVMH.

Acquired’s podcast on LVMH.

Financial Times’ profile of Bernard Arnault.

WSB645: The King of Luxury with Christian Billinger.

WSB643: The Luxury Strategy with Christian Billinger.

Bernard Arnault’s 2024 interview with CNBC.

Explore our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Nintendo⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Airbnb⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AutoZone⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Alphabet⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ulta⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠John Deere⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Madison Square Garden Sports⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Check out the books mentioned in the podcast ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.




NEW TO THE SHOW?


Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X (Twitter)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Try Shawn's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.




SPONSORS

Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠⁠⁠⁠sponsors⁠⁠⁠⁠:


Harvest Right




Connect with Shawn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Connect with Daniel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠



HELP US OUT!

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Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Daniel and Shawn step back for a mid-year review of the Intrinsic Value Portfolio, revisiting each holding to test the strength of their original theses and weigh what’s changed. From ride-hailing to beauty retail, this episode covers the full lineup: why Uber’s cross-sell flywheel and Waymo partnership reinforce its moat; how Alphabet’s latest earnings measure up against the growing threat of AI-native search; and why Reddit may succeed where Snapchat struggled, turning engagement into monetisation.



You’ll hear updates on Q1 earnings, commentary on management execution, and discussions on whether current valuations still offer upside or warrant trimming. They re-evaluate Airbnb’s evolving strategy as it expands into services and experiences, break down Ulta Beauty’s standout results, and revisit early convictions in new names like Nubank.
They also debate the long-term outlook for consumer brands like Nike. Along the way, they reflect on where they’ve been right, where they’ve been early, and how to think about sizing, patience, and risk-reward in a concentrated portfolio.



Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.



IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

03:14 - Why the Ulta Beauty position was being trimmed

17:47 - How Alphabet is holding up against AI competition

28:10 - Why Uber could benefit from autonomous vehicles

58:57 - How Airbnb overcomes regulatory hurdles and expands into experiences

1:06:17 - How Adobe used the AI revolution to strengthen its ecosystem

1:10:10 - Why Reddit might become more of a second Meta than a second Snapchat

1:20:46 - How Nike could overcome the recent headwinds

1:27:39 - Why initiating a position in Nubank is worth the risks



*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Sign Up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Community.⁠⁠⁠


Ulta Beauty: Check out the Podcast and Newsletter.

Alphabet: Check the Podcast & Newsletter.

Airbnb: Check the Podcast & Newsletter.

Adobe: Check the Podcast & Newsletter.

Reddit: Check the Podcast & Newsletter.

Uber: Check the Podcast & Newsletter.

Nike: Check the Podcast & Newsletter.

Explore our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Nintendo⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Airbnb⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AutoZone⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Alphabet⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ulta⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠John Deere⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Madison Square Garden Sports⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Check out the books mentioned in the podcast ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.




NEW TO THE SHOW?


Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X (Twitter)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Try Shawn's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.




SPONSORS

Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠⁠⁠sponsors⁠⁠⁠:

• ⁠Airbnb


Connect with Shawn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Connect with Daniel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠



HELP US OUT!

Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠rating and review⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠! It takes less than 30 seconds and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! 
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahnke break down Smith & Wesson (ticker: SWBI), an iconic firearms manufacturer with 170+ years of history. Smith & Wesson is no compounder, though. It’s an okay business, at best, but Shawn and Daniel want to determine whether this often-overlooked stock is cheaply priced.

In this episode, you’ll learn how Smith & Wesson has navigated the volatile sales cycle in firearms, what factors can drive the biggest swings in firearms sales, whether Smith & Wesson’s juicy dividend is sustainable, the biggest political and legal risks facing this company, what famous investor owns the stock, how Smith & Wesson shares can help an investor hedge societal disruptions, and whether Smith & Wesson is attractively valued on a normalized earnings basis plus so much more!

Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.



IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

02:47 - The historic origins behind this company that predates the Civil War.

06:12 - Why “Sin” stocks can offer attractive returns from discounted valuations.

10:54 - What drives Smith & Wesson’s business.

23:17 - How the company navigates a range of factors that can impact it, from regulation to litigation, that are largely beyond its control.

35:17 - How the company’s relocation of its headquarters has added to its financial stress.

46:11 - The biggest challenges of investing in a “mean reversion” bet like Smith & Wesson.

01:01:15 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add SWBI to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.

01:05:38 - Why Smith & Wesson may be a hedge against societal disruptions.



And much, much more!



*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Sign Up for ⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Community.⁠⁠


2022 Value Investors’ Club Pitch of Smith & Wesson.

Link to Smith & Wesson’s 2024 annual filing.

Chit Chat Stocks’ coverage of Smith & Wesson

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Nintendo⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Airbnb⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AutoZone⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Alphabet⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ulta⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠John Deere⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Madison Square Garden Sports⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Check out the books mentioned in the podcast ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.




NEW TO THE SHOW?


Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X (Twitter)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Try Shawn's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.




SPONSORS

Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠⁠⁠sponsors⁠⁠⁠:


Airbnb



Connect with Shawn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Connect with Daniel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠



HELP US OUT!

Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠rating and review⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠! It takes less than 30 seconds and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! 
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley turn their focus to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (ticker: TSM) — the quiet engine powering nearly every device we touch and the global AI boom. Pioneering the pure-play foundry model, TSMC went from a government-backed experiment in the late 1980s to controlling more than 90 % of the world’s leading-edge chip production, fabricating Apple’s A- and M-series processors, Nvidia’s AI GPUs, and virtually every 3nm part on the planet.



In this episode, you’ll learn how Morris Chang’s radical bet rewired the semiconductor industry, why extreme scale and EUV mastery give TSMC a moat rival chipmakers can’t cross, how its Arizona and Japan fabs fit into a strategy shaped by China-Taiwan tension, and how wafer volumes, node mix, and multi-billion-dollar capex translate into free-cash-flow and ROIIC. Daniel and Shawn also debate the right way to price the ever-present geopolitical “wipe-out” tail risk, and ask whether today’s market price offers a margin of safety on what could be the most important company in the world.



Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube.



IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN

00:00 - Intro

07:39 - How TSMC evolved from a government-backed project to a trillion-dollar company
07:45 - How the semiconductor industry works

16:10 - Where TSMC’s dominance comes from

31:27 - What moat protects TSMC’s business

39:54 - What the competitive landscape looks like

43:55 - Where future growth is coming from

49:45 - How geopolitical risk is impacting TSMC

1:03:25 - Whether TSMC is attractively valued at its current levels

1:09:18 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add TSM to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio

And much, much more!



*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


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Interview with TSMC Founder Morris Chang


Quartr’s Overview of TSMC

NZS Semiconductor Whitepaper


Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Nintendo⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Airbnb⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AutoZone⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Alphabet⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ulta⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠John Deere⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Madison Square Garden Sports⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

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